Sunday, March 18, 2007

Obama Taking Cues from Clinton's Script

Barack Obama has separated himself from his Democratic, and even from his potential Republican foes, through one simple strategy. A strategy that is straight out of the Clinton playbook, Bill Clinton's playbook.

The difference is hope. In 1992, one of the ways Bill Clinton quickly surpassed his more popular fellow Democrats in the early primaries, like Paul Tsongas, was the sense of hope he brought to his message. Whether they agreed with all of his politics, most people that met Clinton on the campaign trail came away with the sense that he was confident and hopeful about the future of the United States and its people.

Barack Obama is using this same strategy to perfection. He is attracting voters to his message not through specific policies about Iraq or health care or even illegal immigration. These issues are the tops of several surveys showing what voters currently care about. Yet, Obama is leading polls and fundraising at a solid rate without clear messaging on any of those issues.

His message is one of hope and his is one of the first voices on either side of the aisle that can speak of that hope with such confidence and credibility. It is that latter quality that will prove to be a key advantage over his Democratic competition.

Although Hillary Clinton is the Democratic front-runner and will likely raise record-breaking amounts of money, she cannot successfully adopt the "hope" strategy. Her calculating image may give the impression of intelligence, foreign policy toughness and strength. But she cannot effectively inspire people.

In the end, voters may need more than hope. They may need substantive proof that our next president can lead us out of the debacle in Iraq. They may require battle tested hardness to win the war of terror. But, if they do require a sense of hope and optimism, Hillary will need an ally.

Enter the X factor, President Bill Clinton. Among Democrats, no living figure inspires more hope and confidence than the former president. But, his involvement in Hillary's campaign is a double edged sword. In Bill, Hillary has the most accomplished and effective campaigner in the modern era. However, his effective messaging of hope will remind more voters of Barack Obama than of his wife. In fact, on the campaign trail, Hillary is everything Bill is not.

So, the question becomes, will voters see Bill as an extension of Hillary or as a reason to vote for hope, a reason to vote for Obama.

We are still very far away from any real decision in the Presidential race. But it seems that Barack Obama is effectively using one of the best strategies in the Clinton playbook, against a Clinton. The question remains, how will the Clintons respond to one of their best plays being used against them. We shall see.